世界には親心しかない in KOBE

News has come in that former Governor Saito's re-election is now certain. I believe Japan is on the brink of change. In the Tokyo gubernatorial election held this summer, Yuriko Koike was elected. The battle was between the old type of Tokyo residents who rely solely on newspapers and TV, plus vested interest groups, and the new type of residents who gather information from the internet, including social media. The old type won in Tokyo, but in the Hyogo gubernatorial election, the new type emerged victorious. Compared to the Tokyo gubernatorial election, the Hyogo election seemed more straightforward. I can hardly remember what the issues were in the Tokyo election, but the Hyogo election was clear. The main issue was whether the power harassment allegations against Governor Saito were true or fabricated by those wanting to protect their vested interests. Takashi Tachibana supported Saito, and it seemed easier to fight on this front. Many people believed the power harassment alleg...

Yesterday, I went for early voting in the Hyogo gubernatorial election. Naturally, I voted for Mr. Saito. Recently, there was the Tokyo gubernatorial election, and now we have the Hyogo gubernatorial election. I believe this could significantly change local elections in Japan, mainly due to the growing influence of the internet on elections. Elderly people, who rely solely on TV and newspapers for information, seem to believe that former Governor Saito committed power harassment. Despite there being no evidence and the reports being almost fabricated, they still believe it. On the other hand, relatively younger people, up to around their 40s, primarily get their information from social media and the internet. There are many individuals and groups who benefit from the political system in Hyogo and oppose former Governor Saito. It seems that newspapers and TV stations have also been benefiting in the same way. Additionally, industry groups, prefectural employees, organizations with amaku...

With the House of Representatives election over, the next focus is on the Hyogo gubernatorial election. Every election, I'm amazed at how accurate the media's "projected winner" announcements are, even before the votes are fully counted. They conduct exit polls and use statistical methods to declare a winner well before the counting is complete, and that candidate usually wins. The statistical methods devised by very smart scholars are truly remarkable. The actual vote-counting process requires a lot of people, money, and time. If it's statistically proven to be accurate, why not use the exit poll system to determine the winner directly? In other words, either skip the actual voting or just simulate the voting process, and let exit polls and statistics decide the winner. This could save a lot of costs. Of course, to avoid mistakes, we could occasionally conduct manual counts to ensure the new method is working correctly. While I'm concerned about the costs of ...

The election felt like a crushing defeat for the Liberal Democratic Party. I expected the market to drop significantly at the start of the week, but instead, it rose. Perhaps the overall market had anticipated worse outcomes. When indicators are released, stock prices move not based on whether the indicators are good or bad, but on whether they are better or worse than expected. Investors predict the future and trade based on those predictions, so just before indicators are announced, expectations are already priced in. If the results are better than expected, prices go up; if worse, they go down. During the party leadership election, the market likely expected Ms. Takaichi to become the leader. When the results were worse than expected, the market dropped significantly. Here, "worse" means worse for stock prices, not that there is anything wrong with Mr. Ishiba. The reason stock prices rose after the general election is likely because investors had anticipated even worse out...